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NOSE SURGERY
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The USD fights back following a better than expected employment ... 2010-01-13 12:17:48 | Source What a rollercoaster. The initial disappointed market reaction to the Non Farm Payrolls report released on Friday, later generated one of the most volatile days the USD has seen during the past year. The report, coming in significantly better than expected at 138K, left traders confused - On one hand, there was a two week sell-off of the USD, waiting for the NFP to refuel it. But, on the other hand, a stronger showing over the expected 115K, indicating companies continued expansion and hiring in November. And as if the market wasn't confused enough, the report itself wasn't conclusive. Indeed, the headline figure came much better than expected and the Average Hourly Earnings rebounded to 4.2%, but the Jobless Rate, which ticked a little higher to 4.5%, slightly offset the other two figures. For those of us who have already seen several NFP releases in the past, the initial market reaction was a total spoiler. No sharp price action followed the release as it usually does, and a mere 20 pips appreciation vs. the EUR and 30 pips against the GBP is all that came immediately after the release. It then took the market about 10 to 15 more minutes to realize that overall, although being better than expected, the report was rather average, and a massive USD sell-off reinitiated. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence report released an hour and a half later and came at 90.2 vs. expectations for a 92.0 figure, further fueled this sell-off, bringing the USD to retest 1.3363 level vs. the EUR and brought it as high as 1.9726 vs. the GBP. This depreciation of the USD, however, did not last much further, as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, a well known advocate of a strong dollar, came to its rescue. The secretary sparked a USD rally by stating the jobs report was "good news" and that it "indicated economic growth is heading toward sustainable levels". This brought all USD counterparts to nose-dive, bringing the EUR below the 1.32 level and the GBP below the 1.95. The USD continued strengthening vs. the major pairs at the opening of this trading week in Asia, and the session, usually known to be very calm, made the USD gain about 70 pips more vs., the EUR and nearly 100 pips vs. the GBP. The only release expected to come from the US today is the monthly Wholesale Inventories (f/c 0.7%). A higher figure, indicating wholesalers' sales where lower than what they had been forecasting, might stall this USD rally and provide the major pairs a chance to catch up. EUR Everything that had to be told about the EUR's behavior on Friday has already been told in our USD review. Unsurprisingly, and in spite of a stronger than expected German Trade Balance that was released on Friday, the main catalyst of the currency's price action originated in the US. The week ahead looks rather promising in terms of trade opportunities and market volatility, with the EUR having several chances to regain its losses starting with tomorrow's German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey and ending with Friday's EZ CPI data. Today, however, there are no significant releases coming from the Euro Zone, but there are several ECB officials scheduled to speak. In addition, the UK's Producer's Price Index is due today, and given the strong correlation the GBP has with the EUR, a strong figure that would reignite fears of inflation might boost the EUR as well as the GBP. In spite of the sharp EURUSD and GBPUSD sell-off, we continue favoring the upside of these two pairs. However, there might just be some more room for the downside so any longs should be taken with great caution. JPY After establishing a 4 month's high vs. the USD, the JPY is starting to lose ground. This has been the result of both the USD's renewed strength and several fundamentals weighing on the JPY. Firstly, the current estimates that the Bank of Japan is probably not intending to raise its interest rates in its December meeting, and secondly, the fact that government officials have lowered their estimates of 2007 Gross Domestic Product growth. Japan's Consumer Confidence that was released this morning came in at 48.7. The release had no signifacant impact on the markets as it came just slightly shy of expectaions. Tonight we are expecting two inflationary figures to be released in Japan - the Corporate Goods Price Index (f/c -0.1%) and Import Price Index. While stronger than expected figures might provide some support for the JPY we believe it is more likely that the current weakness the JPY currently suffers from, will prevail. Technical News EUR/USD The pair has consolidated around 1.3150 after an overnight downslide from 1.3300. 1.3100 is a key support level at the moment, as the pair will try to retest it and determine whether it is an imminent correction, or the beginning of a long range downtrend. Daily studies are bullish, and the hourlies are approaching oversold levels. GBP/USD A sharp decrease for the pair during the Asian sessionwas seen from 1.9700 to 1.9460. The GBP/USD stopped falling ahead of the 38.2 Fibonacci of the 1.8835/1.9850 move around 1.9460. The subsequent bounce validates this level as key support and a break below would suggest that further move down is expected. USD/JPY A volatile session for the USD/JPY, as the pair bounced from 114.90 to test the 116.60 level, which is a very strong resistance. The daily charts a bullish with plenty of room to run further, as hourlies slowly approach overbought levels. 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